Voter Transition Rates: Greece 2019-2023
The following estimates of voter transition rates between Greek General Elections 2019 and 2023 are based on a method that combines unit-level deterministic bounds with cross-unit statistical information. This method was first developed by Gary King (1997) for two-party political systems, and it was further developed to support multi-party systems (Andreadis & Chadjipadelis, 2009; Χατζηπαντελής & Ανδρεάδης, 2007). The data used for the analysis have been downloaded from https://ekloges.ypes.gr/.
1 ND loyalty rates
The loyalty rate for ND is estimated at:83.0% and it varies across the electoral districts of Greece from 71.3% to 89.2%. Table 1.1 shows the electoral districts with highest loyalty rates for ND| Περιφέρεια | Ποσοστό |
|---|---|
| Δωδεκανήσου | 89.2% |
| Α’ Πειραιώς | 88.3% |
| Β’ Δυτικής Αττικής | 87.2% |
| Α’ Ανατολικής Αττικής | 87.1% |
| Κυκλάδων | 86.3% |
| Β1’ Βόρειου Τομέα Αθηνών | 86.2% |
| Χανίων | 85.8% |
| Β’ Πειραιώς | 85.7% |
| Μαγνησίας | 85.5% |
| Β3’ Νότιου Τομέα Αθηνών | 85.4% |
and table 1.2 shows the electoral districts with lowest loyalty rates for ND
| Περιφέρεια | Ποσοστό |
|---|---|
| Ροδόπης | 71.3% |
| Άρτας | 76.6% |
| Πιερίας | 77.5% |
| Δράμας | 77.9% |
| Πρέβεζας | 78.5% |
| Ευρυτανίας | 78.6% |
| Αρκαδίας | 78.8% |
| Ξάνθης | 78.8% |
| Καστοριάς | 79.1% |
| Φλώρινας | 79.6% |
Figure 1.1: ND loyalty rates
2 SYRIZA loyalty rates
The loyalty rate for SYRIZA is estimated at: 58.8% and it varies across the electoral districts of Greece from 52.2% to 80.1%. Table 2.1 shows the electoral districts with highest loyalty rates for SYRIZA| Περιφέρεια | Ποσοστό |
|---|---|
| Ροδόπης | 80.1% |
| Άρτας | 67.9% |
| Αιτωλοακαρνανίας | 65.4% |
| Κεφαλληνίας | 65.0% |
| Ευρυτανίας | 63.8% |
| Αχαΐας | 63.1% |
| Καστοριάς | 63.0% |
| Α’ Αθηνών | 62.9% |
| Γρεβενών | 62.3% |
| Φλώρινας | 61.3% |
and table 2.2 shows the electoral districts with lowest loyalty rates for SYRIZA
| Περιφέρεια | Ποσοστό |
|---|---|
| Λασιθίου | 52.2% |
| Ηρακλείου | 52.5% |
| Δωδεκανήσου | 52.6% |
| Β’ Δυτικής Αττικής | 52.9% |
| Ευβοίας | 53.7% |
| Λέσβου | 53.8% |
| Χανίων | 54.3% |
| Χίου | 54.4% |
| Ρεθύμνης | 54.6% |
| Κυκλάδων | 54.8% |
Figure 2.1: SYRIZA loyalty rates
3 SYRIZA to PASOK
The overall transition rate for SYRIZA to PASOK is estimated at: 9.4% and it varies across the electoral districts of Greece from 4.0% to 20.0%. Table 3.1 shows the electoral districts with highest transition rates from SYRIZA to PASOK| Περιφέρεια | Ποσοστό |
|---|---|
| Ρεθύμνης | 20.0% |
| Ηρακλείου | 18.6% |
| Ξάνθης | 15.1% |
| Ευβοίας | 13.8% |
| Αρκαδίας | 13.1% |
| Λασιθίου | 12.7% |
| Περιφέρεια | Ποσοστό |
|---|---|
| Θεσπρωτίας | 4.0% |
| Ευρυτανίας | 5.0% |
| Ροδόπης | 5.2% |
| Λακωνίας | 5.3% |
| Άρτας | 5.4% |
| Α’ Πειραιώς | 5.4% |
Figure 3.1: SYRIZA to PASOK
4 SYRIZA to ND
The overall transition rate for SYRIZA to ND is estimated at: 16.6% and it varies across the electoral districts of Greece from 0.0% to 24.4%. Table 4.1 shows the electoral districts with highest transition rates from SYRIZA to ND| Περιφέρεια | Ποσοστό |
|---|---|
| Δωδεκανήσου | 24.4% |
| Β’ Δυτικής Αττικής | 22.1% |
| Χανίων | 22.0% |
| Λασιθίου | 21.7% |
| Α’ Πειραιώς | 20.8% |
| Κυκλάδων | 20.6% |
Figure 4.1: SYRIZA to ND
Crete, homeland for both leaders of PASOK and ND, was a disaster for SYRIZA (<55% loyalty rates). In addition, SYRIZA lost many voters towards KKE, other parties and abstention all over Greece. On the other hand, only a small number of the voters who had voted for ND in 2019, have moved to other parties. The most important part has moved towards the new political party: NIKI
5 ND to NIKI
The overall transition rate for ND to NIKI is estimated at: 5.1% and it varies across the electoral districts of Greece from 2.8% to 9.7%. Table 5.1 shows the electoral districts with highest transition rates from ND to NIKI| Περιφέρεια | Ποσοστό |
|---|---|
| Πιερίας | 9.7% |
| Β’ Θεσσαλονίκης | 8.4% |
| Πέλλας | 7.9% |
| Χαλκιδικής | 7.4% |
| Α’ Θεσσαλονίκης | 7.3% |
| Δράμας | 7.0% |
| Κοζάνης | 6.9% |
| Κιλκίς | 6.7% |
| Ημαθίας | 6.6% |
| Αχαΐας | 6.5% |
Figure 5.1: ND to NIKI
6 ABSTENTION to PLEFSI
The overall rate from ABSTENTION to PLEFSI is estimated at: 1.1% and it varies across the electoral districts of Greece from 0.4% to 2.1%. Table 6.1 shows the electoral districts with highest transition rates from ABSTENTION to PLEFSI| Περιφέρεια | Ποσοστό |
|---|---|
| Β2’ Δυτικού Τομέα Αθηνών | 2.1% |
| Α’ Θεσσαλονίκης | 1.9% |
| Β’ Θεσσαλονίκης | 1.7% |
| Β3’ Νότιου Τομέα Αθηνών | 1.7% |
| Β’ Πειραιώς | 1.7% |
| Κέρκυρας | 1.6% |
| Β1’ Βόρειου Τομέα Αθηνών | 1.6% |
| Α’ Ανατολικής Αττικής | 1.5% |
| Β’ Δυτικής Αττικής | 1.4% |
| Μαγνησίας | 1.3% |
Figure 6.1: ABSTENTION to PLEFSI
7 GOLDEN DAWN to GREEK SOLUTION
After the Supreme Court of Greece banned the far-right party GREEKS (founded by imprisoned Ilias Kasidiaris, a former Golden Dawn MP), those who had voted for Golden Dawn in 2019 have moved towards various directions. GREEK SOLUTION has won the majority of these voters. The overall rate from GOLDEN DAWN to GREEK SOLUTION is estimated at: 32.3% and it varies across the electoral districts of Greece from 0.0% to 47.8%. Table 7.1 shows the electoral districts with highest transition rates from GOLDEN DAWN to GREEK SOLUTION| Περιφέρεια | Ποσοστό |
|---|---|
| Έβρου | 47.8% |
| Α’ Θεσσαλονίκης | 47.6% |
| Σάμου | 45.5% |
| Ημαθίας | 43.6% |
| Β’ Θεσσαλονίκης | 43.3% |
| Καστοριάς | 42.1% |
| Χαλκιδικής | 41.9% |
| Πιερίας | 41.1% |
| Ροδόπης | 41.0% |
| Πέλλας | 38.9% |
Figure 7.1: GOLDEN DAWN to GREEK SOLUTION
8 Table of Voter Transition Rates
All estimated voter transition rates are presented in Table 8.1.| Party | nd | syriza | pasok | kke | elly | niki | plefsi | other | al | apoxi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| syriza19 | 16.6% | 58.8% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 6.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% |
| nd19 | 83.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 5.1% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 3.4% |
| gd19 | 19.6% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 32.3% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 1.6% | 7.6% |
| kinal19 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 98.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| kke19 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 95.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| plefsi19 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 99.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| elly19 | 3.2% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 80.9% | 5.9% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| other19 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 99.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| al19 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 94.5% | 0.0% |
| apoxi19 | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 89.7% |
Please note that when we apply the method if want to get the output in a reasonable time, we have to define a parameter that corresponds to the part of the population (e.g. 5%, 1%, 0.5%, 0.1% etc) that will remain unexplained. If we want to decrease the part of the population that will remain unexplained, we have to wait for a longer time for the output. For the estimates in Table 8.1 this parameter was set to: 0.5%.
