The following estimates of voter transition rates between Greek General Elections 2019 and 2023 are based on a method that combines unit-level deterministic bounds with cross-unit statistical information. This method was first developed by Gary King (1997) for two-party political systems, and it was further developed to support multi-party systems (Andreadis & Chadjipadelis, 2009; Χατζηπαντελής & Ανδρεάδης, 2007). The data used for the analysis have been downloaded from https://ekloges.ypes.gr/.

1 ND loyalty rates

The loyalty rate for ND is estimated at:83.0% and it varies across the electoral districts of Greece from 71.3% to 89.2%. Table 1.1 shows the electoral districts with highest loyalty rates for ND

Table 1.1: Electoral districts with highest loyalty rates for ND

Περιφέρεια	Ποσοστό
Δωδεκανήσου	89.2%
Α’ Πειραιώς	88.3%
Β’ Δυτικής Αττικής	87.2%
Α’ Ανατολικής Αττικής	87.1%
Κυκλάδων	86.3%
Β1’ Βόρειου Τομέα Αθηνών	86.2%
Χανίων	85.8%
Β’ Πειραιώς	85.7%
Μαγνησίας	85.5%
Β3’ Νότιου Τομέα Αθηνών	85.4%

and table 1.2 shows the electoral districts with lowest loyalty rates for ND

Table 1.2: Electoral districts with lowest loyalty rates for ND

Περιφέρεια	Ποσοστό
Ροδόπης	71.3%
Άρτας	76.6%
Πιερίας	77.5%
Δράμας	77.9%
Πρέβεζας	78.5%
Ευρυτανίας	78.6%
Αρκαδίας	78.8%
Ξάνθης	78.8%
Καστοριάς	79.1%
Φλώρινας	79.6%

Finally, figure 1.1 displays the loyalty rates of ND in all electoral districts

Figure 1.1: ND loyalty rates

2 SYRIZA loyalty rates

The loyalty rate for SYRIZA is estimated at: 58.8% and it varies across the electoral districts of Greece from 52.2% to 80.1%. Table 2.1 shows the electoral districts with highest loyalty rates for SYRIZA

Table 2.1: Electoral districts with highest loyalty rates for SYRIZA

Περιφέρεια	Ποσοστό
Ροδόπης	80.1%
Άρτας	67.9%
Αιτωλοακαρνανίας	65.4%
Κεφαλληνίας	65.0%
Ευρυτανίας	63.8%
Αχαΐας	63.1%
Καστοριάς	63.0%
Α’ Αθηνών	62.9%
Γρεβενών	62.3%
Φλώρινας	61.3%

and table 2.2 shows the electoral districts with lowest loyalty rates for SYRIZA

Table 2.2: Electoral districts with lowest loyalty rates for SYRIZA

Περιφέρεια	Ποσοστό
Λασιθίου	52.2%
Ηρακλείου	52.5%
Δωδεκανήσου	52.6%
Β’ Δυτικής Αττικής	52.9%
Ευβοίας	53.7%
Λέσβου	53.8%
Χανίων	54.3%
Χίου	54.4%
Ρεθύμνης	54.6%
Κυκλάδων	54.8%

Finally, figure 2.1 displays the loyalty rates of SYRIZA in all electoral districts

Figure 2.1: SYRIZA loyalty rates

3 SYRIZA to PASOK

The overall transition rate for SYRIZA to PASOK is estimated at: 9.4% and it varies across the electoral districts of Greece from 4.0% to 20.0%. Table 3.1 shows the electoral districts with highest transition rates from SYRIZA to PASOK

Table 3.1: Electoral districts with highest transition rates from SYRIZA to PASOK

Περιφέρεια	Ποσοστό
Ρεθύμνης	20.0%
Ηρακλείου	18.6%
Ξάνθης	15.1%
Ευβοίας	13.8%
Αρκαδίας	13.1%
Λασιθίου	12.7%

and Table 3.2 shows the electoral districts with lowest transition rates from SYRIZA to PASOK

Table 3.2: Electoral districts with lowest transition rates from SYRIZA to PASOK

Περιφέρεια	Ποσοστό
Θεσπρωτίας	4.0%
Ευρυτανίας	5.0%
Ροδόπης	5.2%
Λακωνίας	5.3%
Άρτας	5.4%
Α’ Πειραιώς	5.4%

Finally, figure 3.1 displays the transition rates from SYRIZA to PASOK in all electoral districts

Figure 3.1: SYRIZA to PASOK

4 SYRIZA to ND

The overall transition rate for SYRIZA to ND is estimated at: 16.6% and it varies across the electoral districts of Greece from 0.0% to 24.4%. Table 4.1 shows the electoral districts with highest transition rates from SYRIZA to ND

Table 4.1: Electoral districts with highest transition rates from SYRIZA to ND

Περιφέρεια	Ποσοστό
Δωδεκανήσου	24.4%
Β’ Δυτικής Αττικής	22.1%
Χανίων	22.0%
Λασιθίου	21.7%
Α’ Πειραιώς	20.8%
Κυκλάδων	20.6%

Figure 4.1 displays the transition rates from SYRIZA to ND in all electoral districts

Figure 4.1: SYRIZA to ND

Crete, homeland for both leaders of PASOK and ND, was a disaster for SYRIZA (<55% loyalty rates). In addition, SYRIZA lost many voters towards KKE, other parties and abstention all over Greece. On the other hand, only a small number of the voters who had voted for ND in 2019, have moved to other parties. The most important part has moved towards the new political party: NIKI

5 ND to NIKI

The overall transition rate for ND to NIKI is estimated at: 5.1% and it varies across the electoral districts of Greece from 2.8% to 9.7%. Table 5.1 shows the electoral districts with highest transition rates from ND to NIKI

Table 5.1: Electoral districts with highest transition rates from ND to NIKI

Περιφέρεια	Ποσοστό
Πιερίας	9.7%
Β’ Θεσσαλονίκης	8.4%
Πέλλας	7.9%
Χαλκιδικής	7.4%
Α’ Θεσσαλονίκης	7.3%
Δράμας	7.0%
Κοζάνης	6.9%
Κιλκίς	6.7%
Ημαθίας	6.6%
Αχαΐας	6.5%

Figure 5.1 displays the transition rates from ND to NIKI in all electoral districts

Figure 5.1: ND to NIKI

6 ABSTENTION to PLEFSI

The overall rate from ABSTENTION to PLEFSI is estimated at: 1.1% and it varies across the electoral districts of Greece from 0.4% to 2.1%. Table 6.1 shows the electoral districts with highest transition rates from ABSTENTION to PLEFSI

Table 6.1: Electoral districts with highest transition rates from ABSTENTION to PLEFSI

Περιφέρεια	Ποσοστό
Β2’ Δυτικού Τομέα Αθηνών	2.1%
Α’ Θεσσαλονίκης	1.9%
Β’ Θεσσαλονίκης	1.7%
Β3’ Νότιου Τομέα Αθηνών	1.7%
Β’ Πειραιώς	1.7%
Κέρκυρας	1.6%
Β1’ Βόρειου Τομέα Αθηνών	1.6%
Α’ Ανατολικής Αττικής	1.5%
Β’ Δυτικής Αττικής	1.4%
Μαγνησίας	1.3%

Figure 6.1 displays the transition rates from ABSTENTION to PLEFSI in all electoral districts